The Hurricane Future: Theory and Reality

The Department of Physics and Astronomy Colloquium: Prof. Thomas Schroeder, UH Manoa, Department of Meterology, to speak on "The Hurricane Future: Theory and Reality."

Abstract:
Recent public opinion surveys report that the U.S. public consider more frequent, more intense hurricanes as the principal consequence of global climate change (global warming). I shall offer a brief primer on hurricane development and structure. I shall discuss the meaning of “intensity”, the basic theory of maximum potential intensity and the features of a globally “warmed” climate which should contribute to increased potential intensity.The actual predicted change is fairly small ( ~ 5 -7 % for a CO2 doubling). A series of recent papers have suggested that a detectable change in frequency of intense hurricanes has occurred. The results are controversial and a passionate debate has ensued. At the root of the argument is a series of fundamental questions:

1. How well do we measure/sample intensity?
2. What impact does evolving technology have on estimates of intensity?
3. What non-scientific factors may be important?

The issue of changing frequency of hurricanes is equally complex . I shall summarize some recent preliminary attempts at analyzing hurricane frequency changes in climate simulations. The results may surprise.

Ticket Information
Free

Event Sponsor
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Manoa

More Information
Dr. John G. Learned, 956-2964, jgl@phys.hawaii.edu

Ongoing Events