MET Seminar

March 9, 3:30pm - 5:30pm
Mānoa Campus, Marine Science Building, Room 100 (MSB 100) Add to Calendar


Title: "Ensemble prediction of extratropical cyclones in the North-East Atlantic for costal flood forecasting"

By: Dr. Richard Hewston
Post Doctoral Fellow
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
Department of Meteorology
University of Hawaii

Severe extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic can lead to wave overtopping and storm surge along the UK coastline. Currently there is a lack of robust and integrated “clouds-to-coast” modeling frameworks, largely due to the uncertainties in complex interactions between atmospheric, oceanic and coastal processes. An integrated modeling system which incorporates a numerical weather prediction model, along with models of wave generation and propagation, and surge and tide propagation, is presented. The benefit of employing an ensemble forecasting methodology in an applied hydrological context is demonstrated.

This presentation describes results for a domain centered on one of the locations for a proposed barrage in the Severn Estuary in the southwest UK. The barrage will be the focus for the world’s largest marine renewable energy scheme and will potentially have a significant impact on the coastal flooding response of this part of the Severn Estuary. Storm forecasting will therefore be important not just in terms of mitigating coastal flood impacts, but also in managing renewable energy generation.

Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Time: 3:30 pm
Location: Marine Science Building, Room 100 (MSB 100)

Event Sponsor
Meteorology, Mānoa Campus

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