Peak Oil and the End of Cheap-and-Easy-Oil

March 23, 3:15pm - 4:30pm
Mānoa Campus, Watanabe Hall, Rm. 112

The Department of Physics and Astronomy Colloquium: Dr. Manfred J. Zapka, MMS Engineering, Honolulu, to speak on “Peak Oil and the End of Cheap-and-Easy-Oil: Challenges to the Global Community as it Faces the Most Difficult Transformation in the History of the Industrial Society.”

Abstract:
“Peak Oil” is an emerging issue of great importance and urgency, as Peak Oil might be imminent. Peak Oil signifies a historical turning point of the industrial society, when the supply of crude oil reaches its maximum rate and starts its inevitable decline thereafter. Given the momentum of strongly expanding global demand for oil, a shortfall in supply will create a demand-supply gap that will result in higher oil prices, at the minimum, or will cause widespread economic and societal discontinuities. Oil drives virtually all aspects of our modern mobile society and shortfalls will directly and significantly affect all aspects of our lives. A thorough knowledge of mechanisms of Peak Oil will be essential for leaders as well as for the general public, in order to cope with challenges ahead, as the industrial society will pass through the most difficult transformation in its history.

The presentation introduces underlying concepts of Peak Oil and the depletion of oil and presents a broad spectrum of peak estimates published by governmental agencies, industry and independent energy analysts. The presentation will discuss frequent misconceptions and arguments of peak opponents that cloud the public debate of Peak OIl, such as magnitude of estimated reserves and future discoveries, abiotic oil formation, reserve growth, contributions of advanced oil recovery, individual field depletion, contributions of giant fields, production over reserve ratios, potential of renewable energies to serve as substitutes to oil, etc. Apart from the peak in oil production, the presentation presents looming peak scenarios for other non-renewable fuels, such as coal, gas and even uranium, which are slated to replace declining oil production but which face their own depletion dramas.

Developing and implementing mitigation measures, on the supply as well as on the demand side, have to start long before Peak Oil arrives and require future foresight and change readiness. Apart from a technology revolution towards higher energy efficiency in all aspects of the economy, the global community requires an orchestrated transition towards mandatory energy conservation. The required Energy Change will be much more difficult than any transformation that the industrial society has faced in its history. This change, to be successful, will require appropriate leadership, innovation, governance, community and empathy. The presentation discusses basic elements of change, required traits of effective change readiness and measures that will likely lead to failure. The presentation discusses possible future scenarios for the University of Hawaii and the State of Hawaii as Hawaii must get ready for a life with less oil.

Manfred J. Zapka is a graduate of the University of Hawaii. He works as a consulting engineer and writes on issues dealing with technology and change scenarios for the Peak Oil era.


Ticket Information
Free

Event Sponsor
Physics and Astronomy, Manoa

More Information
Dr. John G. Learned, 956-2964, jgl@phys.hawaii.edu

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