Peak Everything or It’s Only the End of the World as We Know It:Two Year Updt

The Department of Physics and Astronomy Colloquium: Prof. Gary McMurtry, UH Manoa, Department of Oceanography, to speak on "Peak Everything or It’s Only the End of the World as We Know It, the Two-Year Update."

Abstract:
Our increasingly crowded and industrialized world is rapidly churning through the Earth’s finite resources, and unwittingly, or perhaps inescapably, falling into the energy well of increasing entropy described as the second law of thermodynamics. “Peak Everything” succinctly describes our predicament in two words. Reaching the production peak of a commodity is not the end. Usually, it’s just signals the halfway point and issues a warning that the easiest and least-costly half of the commodity has been extracted. We already live in a post-peak world for many commodities of value to industrialized society, among them mercury which peaked in 1962, lead (1986), gold (2000), and phosphate rock and natural gas, which peaked in North America in 1989 and 2001, respectively. Metals such as mercury and gold are scarce and expensive, and are heavily recycled where possible, whereas phosphate rock and natural gas are destroyed (transformed into waste products) although phosphate’s use cycle could in theory be closed. Before being imported to North America, post-peak usage of natural gas and phosphate rock will follow their production declines until extraction and supply costs become locally prohibitive or they become exhausted on land, in less than thirty years.

Conventional crude oil production peaked in North America in 1970 and globally in 2005. Living with the post-peak effects of global “Peak Oil” will be different, because the USA already imports nearly 70% of its oil consumption and because we have foolishly allowed it to heavily permeate our culture on the erroneous assumptions of infinite supply or viable alternatives to liquid fuel at present use levels. Now, perhaps 2-3 years beyond the global conventional oil peak, our economy and society is riding upon a “bumpy plateau”, where gentle production declines have been masked by both alternate or unconventional liquid fuels production and by use of advanced oil and natural gas extraction technologies that will likely intensify future decline rates. We stand at a precipice, although most humans alive today do not know it and many of those that do, including the speaker, are in various states of denial. Perhaps you’ve noticed the price of gasoline lately?

Ticket Information
Free

Event Sponsor
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Manoa

More Information
Dr. John G. Learned, 956-2964, jgl@phys.hawaii.edu

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