Introduction
People, Places, and Patterns

RELATED READINGS

• Geography for Life: National Geography Standards, Chapters 1-3; Chapter 4, pp. 66-68 and 101-104.
• World Population: Fundamentals of Growth
• Geographic Skills: Asking Geographic Questions (in notebook)
• Activity: Asking Geographic Questions (in notebook)

1. 1994 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT (ICPD), CAIRO, EGYPT
   1. 20-year Program of Action agreed to by 150 countries which addresses crucial population issues.

   2. Important shift in emphasis for the international community.
      1. Population growth needs to be stabilized.

      2. Places population within the context of sustainable development and imporvement in individual health and well-being.

      3. Population growth can be stabilized and development efforts enhanced by the advancement of women - by providing women with education and access to economic and political power.

2. GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE

   The perspective of geography is essential to an understanding of population dynamics and the implications for current and future population issues.

   1. Spatial Perspective
   2. Ecological Perspective

   "There are large differences among the regions of the world in birth rates, death rates, age structure, and movements of people. These differences will affect the ultimate size and distribution of the world廣 population, as well as the policies and programs needed to address population-related concerns." (L.S. Ashford, New Perspectives on Population: Lessons from Cairo, Population Bulletin, Vol. 501(1). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1995), page 12.

   The United Nations has noted that the redefinition of population issues reflects the international consensus that "population, poverty, patterns of production and consumption and the environment are so closely interconnected that none of them can be considered in isolation." (US Department of Commerce, World Population Profile: 1996. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, page 3.

3. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE

   What are the patterns of population change through time and space?

   1. World population growth has accelerated through history to reach 5.9 billion in 1998.

      2000 Years of Population Growth Reduced to a Single Day Visualize the growth of population over 2000 years scaled to the time of a day. We begin the day at midnight with a population of 200 million. The population on this scale does not double until 7:48 PM, nearly 20 hours later. The next doubling of the world population occurs at 10:12 PM, again at 11:00 PM, and at 11:36 PM, which we can consider as the year 1965. Before the stroke of midnight, or the year 2000, the population will double again.

   2. Population change is a result of natural change and migration.
      
      1. Births and deaths change overall population numbers whereas migration redistributes population.

      2. Only at the global level is the population growth determined solely by natural change.

   3. Differential rates of growth are due to natural increase.
      1. Natural Increase is expressed as a percentage:

         Birth Rate - Death Rate 10

         = Natural Increase as a %

      2. Absolute increases in population are the result of population momentum, which is influenced by:
         • a high concentration of people in childbearing ages
         • the total fertility rate

      3. Doubling time is used to project population growth. Doubling time is the number of years it will take to double the current population of an area, given the current growth rate.

   4. The age-sex structure of a population determines the potential for future growth of specific age groups as well as the total population.
      1. The structure is represented in graphic form by a population pyramid, which is constructed as a bar graph.

      2. The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the potential for future growth.

4. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
   1. This is a model which traces the changing levels of natural increase/decrease, presumably associated with industrialization and urbanization.

   2. Mortality has declined considerably, beginning in 18th century Europe and 19th century America. Areas with declining death rates while retaining high birth rates experience a population explosion.

   3. See Figure 1: Demographic Transition.

5. MIGRATION PATTERNS
   1. Migration patterns are influenced by:
      1. Push and Pull, factors.

      2. People's perception of places.

      3. Distance, both in terms of cost and emotion.

      4. Intervening opportunities.

   2. Migration Trends
      1. Only a small minority of the world's population ever crosses national boundaries. In the mid-1980s, about 100 million people were international migrants.

      2. Significant migration flows are between developing countries. Many are refugees, which were estimated at 13.2 million in 1997.

      3. It is estimated that women and girls constitute 40% - 60% of migrants.

      4. Migration patterns have changed in Europe. Germany, France, and Switzerland receive the largest number of immigrants. Italy, Spain, and Greece have changed from emigration countries to countries of net in-migration.

      5. The United States leads in the number of immigrants received.

   3. Immigration patterns have changed in the United States.
      1. Numbers are reflective of immigration policy.
         (FIGURE 2) Immigration to the United States, 1890-1994

      2. Differential patterns of natural increase and migration affect the number and distribution of ethnic populations in the United States.
         (FIGURE 3) Immigrants admitted to the United States by region of birth

6. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

   Where are people located on Earth廣 surface? Why?

   1. Population numbers are unevenly distributed over Earth's surface.
      1. Ecumeme
         • permanently inhabited areas
         • East Asia (25% of world廣 population)
         • South Asia (21%)
         • Europe (13%)
         • NE United States and adjacent Canada (5%)

      2. Non-ecumene
         • uninhabited or sparsely settled areas
         • 35% - 50% of world's surface

   2. The world's population occupies a small part of the land surface.
      1. 90% of the world's people live on less than 20% of its surface.

      2. People tend to congregate in lowland areas.

      3. People favor continental margins.

      4. Almost 90% live north of the equator.

   3. Significant shifts in the global population distribution are expected due to differential population growth rates and migration.
      1. More growth is projected for the developing countries of the world and for urban areas.
      2. Refer to Table 1 and Table 2.

      (TABLE 1) 20 Most Populous Countries

      (TABLE 2) Projections of 25 Most Populous Countries

7. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

   In what ways do human systems and the physical environment interact to maintain sustainable development?

   "...development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." (World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future. New York: Oxford University Press, 1987, page 43).

   1. Growing global population and growing economy pressures resources.
      1. Need more food, water, goods, services, and space.

      2. Where there is scarcity, population increase aggravates it.

   2. Impacts on environment and resources.
      1. Available land is threatened by overgrazing, agriculture and forestry.

      2. Access to safe drinking water is hampered by poverty, poor infrastructure and pollution of waterways and ground water.

      3. The results of projected urban growth are mixed - there is more access to health care and education but encroaches on farmland, destroys wildlife habitat, etc.

      4. Ocean resources are succumbing to overfishing and disease from pollution.

      5. Logging and agriculture threaten forest resources.

      6. Fossil fuel use contributes to atmospheric pollution.

   3. The concept of carrying capacity is part of sustainability and helps to define overpopulation.
      1. Carrying capacity is the maximum number of people an area can support on a sustained basis, given the current technology.

      2. A sustainable supply of resources - including nutrients, energy, and living space - defines the carrying capacity for a particular population in a particular environmental system.

   4. Sustainable development is a process requiring progress in four dimensions:
      1. Economic (reduce energy consumption, alleviate poverty)

      2. Human (stabilize population, slow urban migration, improve literacy)

      3. Environmental (efficient use of arable land and water, improve agriculture)

      4. Technological (cleaner, curtail use of fossil fuel, phase out CFCs)

   5. Sustainability addresses the issues of differential patterns of consumption, rapid population growth, and the combined impact on the natural environment.

      Global environment trends will be dominated by eight countries (E8) (Christopher Flavin, The Legacy of Rio, in State of the World 1997. New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1997).

      1. The industrialized countries shape trends due to their economic strength, high level of material consumption, and dominance of technology.
         1. United States
         2. Russia
         3. Japan
         4. Germany

      2. The developing countries influence is determined by their large populations, rapid economic development, and rich diversity of wildlife.
         1. China
         2. India
         3. Indonesia
         4. Brazil

8. PLANS FOR PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

   1. Suggested indicators of progress toward sustainable development include:
      1. GNP per capita

         The traditional measure of the health of an economy.

      2. Energy consumption per capita

         Measures the state of a country's industrial development and amount of carbon it contributes to global warming.

      3. Under-five mortality

         A good measure of the general health of a population, it reflects access to health services, levels of nutrition (especially of pregnant women, infants, and children), education (especially female literacy), and general socio-economic status. It also measures environmental problems as children are the most fragile members of society and the most vulnerable to disease and environmental stress.

      4. Fertility rates

         These are a good measure of human development as they are related to the health and welfare of women.

   2. In 1993, President Clinton created the US President's Council on Sustainable Development.
      1. 25 members were charged with the development of a national sustainable development action strategy.

      2. Ten goals form the basis of the plan (see Table 3).

   Table 3: US Plans for Sustainable Development
   The following goals are put forth, with indicators of progress, by the President's Council on Sustainable Development.

   GOAL 1: HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT

   Ensure that every person enjoys the benefits of clean air, clean water, and a healthy environment.

   GOAL 2: ECONOMIC PROPERITY

   Sustain a healthy US economy that grows sufficiently to create meaningful jobs, reduce poverty, and provide the opportunity for a high quality of life for all in an increasingly competitive world.

   GOAL 3: EQUITY

   Ensure that all Americans are afforded justice and have the opportunity to achieve economic, environmental, and social well-being.

   GOAL 4: CONSERVATION OF NATURE

   Use, conserve, protect, and restore natural resources - land, air, water, and biodiversity - in ways that help ensure long-term social, economic, and environmental benefits for ourselves and future generations.

   GOAL 5: STEWARDSHIP

   Create a widely held ethic of stewardship that strongly encourages individuals, institutions, and corporations to take full responsibility for the economic, environmental, and social consequences of their actions.

   GOAL 6: SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES

   Encourage people to work together to create healthy communities where natural and historic resources are preserved, jobs are available, sprawl is contained, neighborhoods are secure, education is lifelong, transportation and health care are accessible, and all citizens have opportunities to improve the quality of their lives.

   GOAL 7: CIVIC ENGAGEMENT

   Create full opportunity for citizens, businesses, and communities to participate in and influence the natural resource, environmental, and economic decisions that effect them.

   GOAL 8: POPULATION

   Move toward stabilization os US population.

   GOAL 9: INTERNATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY

   Take a leadership role in the development and implementation of global sustainable development policies, standards of conduct, and trade and foreign policies that further the achievement of sustainability.

   GOAL 10: EDUCATION

   Ensure that all Americans have equal access to education and lifelong learning opportunities that will prepare them for meaningful work, a high quality of life, and an understanding of the concepts involved in sustainable development.

9. THE WORLD'S WOMEN

   What are the demographic and social patterns of women and how are these patterns reflected in the concept of sustainability?

   "Ideally, in a sustainable society, careful management of natural resources is combined with equitable opportunities for education, health care, food, shelter, and employment." (World Resources Institute, Women, Equity and Sustainable Development. Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt Publishing Co., 1998, page 1).

   1. The emphais on women is reflected in the Cairo Plan which abandons decades of policies that promoted population control based on quotass
   2. Recognizes that limiting population growth depends on increasing the educational and economic prospects and political rights of women.
   3. Women are targeted in the Cairo Plan goals for the year 2015:
      1. Universal access to family planning.
      2. Reduce infant mortality.
      3. Close the gap in maternal mortality between developed countries and developing countries.
      4. Increase life expectancy.
      5. Provide girls and women with access to education.

10. GEOGRAPHY PUTS THE PIECES TOGETHER

    Geography provides a body of knowledge and skills as well as a perspective which enhances the understanding of population issues.

    1. Geography literally means to write about (describe) Earth.
       1. It is the science and art of location.

       2. Geography applies a perspective to the study and understanding of people, places, and patterns.
       1. Spatial Perspective explores space and place.

       2. Ecological Perspective explores the relationships between the physical and human environments.

    2. The skills of geography:
       1. Asking geographic questions
       2. Acquiring geographic information
       3. Organizing geographic information
       4. Analyzing geographic information
       5. Answering geographic questions

    3. The geographic perspective prompts us to ask geographic questions about people in particular places. Asking geographic questions is the first of the skills emphasized by geography. Refer to the Skills Section of the notebook, Asking Geographic Questions.

    4. The acquisition, organization, and analysis of geographic information reveals the patterns related to our line of inquiry and enable us to answer the questions posed.