Instructions for Accessing and Using the International Futures (IFs) simulation

Prof. Richard Chadwick

world@hawaii.edu

 

Beginning earlier this year, for the first time, you and the general public have access to a model in current use by the National Intelligence Council and the United Nations Environmental Program's GEO (Global Environmental Outlook). It was for the further development and application of this model that I was in Istanbul earlier this semester. This is the best overall model I know for examining alternative international futures on a country, regional and global basis. The text for it is written by its designer, Prof. Barry Hughes, International Futures.

Exercise I. Expected Major World Changes

1. Use your browser to link to www.ifs.du.edu. (If that doesn't work there is a link on the 2020 Project page to ifsmodel.org/, then in the left margin click on "Use IFs Online." Note: the 2020 version of the model only allows you to go to 2020 A.D.)
2. Click on "continue" (the UNEP GEO model).
3. Click on "Load and continue".
4. Click on "Display" then "Packaged Displays".
5. Click on "Energy" in the Categories menu on the right.
6. At the bottom of the same page, then click on "Line Graph".
7. Click on Back, then on World Energy Price and then Line Graph.
8. Click on Back, then on World Energy Sources and then Line Graph.

Notice such major events as China being expected to consume far more energy than the USA in the near future, the skyrocketing price of oil, and the rapid replacement of oil by non-traditional energy sources such as geothermal, hydro, and wind (labeled "Othr"). Note: go to www.pbs.org/newhour/. Read about Bush's call for energy independence by 2025. Do you see the connection between this work and public policy?

Exercise II. Alternative Futures Projected for Your Country

1. Do steps 1-3 above.
2. Go to "Display" and then "Basic Report"
3. Select your country from the "Countries or Regions" drop down menu at the top left. You will then have an "alternative future" data table based on the "base case" (the one most consistent with current national and international policies).
4. Examine the drop down "Select Scenario" window. Clicking on the arrow gives you the options of looking at several alternative futures constructed with different assumptions about global changes. Each is given a descriptive label ("Market First," "Security First," "Sustainability First" and so on).
5. Pick one or two of the alternative scenarios. You'll see the results displayed.
6. Notice the menu item at the top, "Explain Scenarios." To read about the assumptions in each of these alternative futures, simply click on this menu item.

None of alternative futures projected need come true. Each is based on judgments about what the "best" (often contested) available data and empirical theory are, as well as estimates of the likely impact of various policy changes contingent on events.

Exercise III. Design Your Own Policy and Alternative Future

Goto GPIRSim.doc