Causes of Misperception

Summary of John Stoessinger's book,
Why Nations Go to War

• War is an illness threatening extinction of the human species.
• No nation which began a major war this century has won it.
• Wars are started by the impotent in this century.
• Unless the vanquished are destroyed completely, peace does not last. Peace settlements negotiated on the basis of equality are much more permanent.
• Leader's personalities are crucial at the outbreak of war.

• The most important single cause of war is misperception of adversaries' character, intentions, capabilities, and one's own self.
• When two nation's leaders each perceive the other as threatening war, war is a virtual certainty.

Walter Jones,
The Logic of International Relations

• War is an accident brought on by misperception of relative power.

Charles Hermann's definition of crisis

• short decision time,
• high threat to national values,
• surprise (unanticipated, no contingency plan).

Reference to Irving Janis' book: Groupthink

"critical thinking"

Critical thinking is characterized by Janis as the examination a wide variety of alternatives from many perspectives or concerns.

"consensus seeking"

Consensus decision making is searching for ways to agree on an action or policy by obtaining tacit or assumed agreement; everyone just "goes along."

"crisis" (see Hermann, above)

"groupthink hypothesis:"

generally, critical thinking is substituted by consensus-seeking behavior

• in crisis situations
• when the participants value group membership highly (dissent threatens membership)
• have lowered self esteem (feel incompetent to arrive at a solution which does not compromise some value)
• think alike (same ethnic, racial, class, or religious group).

References