The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) released its Asia-Pacific forecast, a review of economic conditions in the world economy with particular focus on Asia. The report includes forecasts for major countries and regions.
The Asia-Pacific economy slowed this year, and only slight acceleration is expected in 2015. While US economic conditions are steadily improving, Japan has had to delay for now additional tax hikes after the first one prompted contraction. Lower oil prices will be an overall plus for the global economy, even if they pose challenges for commodity exporters. China’s structural transformation and the eurozone’s struggle to move onto a satisfactory growth path continue to hold back global trade. This limits prospects for export dependent East and Southeast Asia.
- The U.S. is the bright spot among developed economies.
- Outside North America, prospects for much of the developed world look poor.
- As expected, the April consumption tax increase in Japan caused a pre-hike surge in spending, but an even larger drop thereafter.
- In Australia, softer business confidence is limiting investment.
- The pace of growth in China has continued to decelerate.
- Excluding China, growth in the rest of developing East and Southeast Asia will average 4–4.5 percent over the next two years.
- Very real risks cloud what is otherwise a moderately positive regional forecast.
The UHERO Forecast Project provides the Hawaiʻi community with analysis of economic, demographic and business trends in the state and the Asia-Pacific region.
Email UHERO for the full report.