Department of Philosophy

Welcome to Philosophy 111  
(Introduction to Inductive Logic)

Your instructor is J. E. (Jim) Tiles. email: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , Sakamaki D307 (956-7001). [Office Hours MWF 9:30-10:20, 11:30-12:20; TuTh 11:45-12:30., and by appointment.]

The required text for this course is
(available from the Campus Bookstore)
     •    Ian Hacking, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic,
        Cambridge U.P. 2001 978-0-521-77501-4 (Pb)
An optional text is recommended                
Michael Kaplan & Ellen Kaplan, Chances Are ... : Adventures in Probability,
        Penguin Group, 2006, ISBN 0670034878

Student Learning Objectives
For FS courses in general
•    Students can solve a real world problem making appropriate use of symbolic representation and manipulation.
•    Students can evaluate a line of reasoning for correctness
•    Students are able to illustrate the power or limitations of a symbolic technique
For this course in particular:
•    By the end of the course students should be familiar with the basic concepts of logic, probability, statistics and decision theory. In other words they should know the definitions of these concepts and be able to apply the concepts appropriately.
•    Students should know why statistical and probability models are important and be able to set up simple models (including the use of diagrams) to solve problems.
•    Students should be able to engage in and evaluate *'risky" inferences.

Expectations
This is intended course to help develop reasoning and analytic skills. Acquiring any skill (to speak a language, to play the piano, to play Tennis) requires you to practice. You cannot succeed just by reading a book or listening to a teacher. You will not do well on the weekly quizzes or mid-term tests if you do not practice by attempting the exercises in the book and paying attention to the definitions of key words for review listed at the end of each chapter. It is expected that you will read each chapter before we are scheduled to discuss it in class. It is also expected that you will do any and all remaining exercises at the end of each chapter that we have not covered in class before the quiz on that chapter. If there is material you do not understand you should ask questions in class, and/or make an appointment with your instructor.

Assessment
If you want to do well in this class SHOW YOUR WORK in all written answers. 'The class is primarily about the process used to arrive at a conclusion, not just "the bottom line".
Weekly quizzes will have a take-home part and most will also have an in-class part. 'The take-home part will be handed out at the end of each lab session and will be due at the beginning of class on Wednesday. NO LATE WORK WILL BE ACCEPTED, 'The in-class part will be at the beginning of class on Wednesday.
Weekly quizzes and class participation 35%, Midterms (2) -35%. Final Exam -30%.
There are 13 quizzes. For those who do all 13, the best 10 grades will be counted. If you miss 3, for any reason, your 10 remaining grades will be counted. Additional absences will result in a grade of zero being entered for each quiz missed. The in-class part of quizzes will normally be on the definitions of key terms (listed at the end of each chapter) and ability to apply them in the context of a short example. The takehome part will involve problem solving similar to that required for the exercises in the textbook. From time to time there will be some more challenging problems available for extra credit.
In order to pass this course, you must take and pass the final exam.
 Tentative Calendar

1:    Jan    12    Introduction -Diagnostic test (not for grade)
            14    Hacking Ch. 1    Chances Are Ch.1
            16    Hacking Ch. 2        
2:    Jan    _   [*Jan 20 Last day to drop classes]
            21    Quiz #1 (Ch. 1 & 2)
            23    Hacking Ch 3 The Gambler's Fallacy    Chances Are Ch 2
3:    Jan    26    Hacking Ch.3 Exercises
            28    turn in Quiz#2 (on Gambling)    Chances Are Ch 4
            30    Hacking Ch. 4 Elementary Probability Ideas
4:     Feb    2    Exercises Hacking Ch. 4
            4    Quiz #3 (Hacking Chs. 3 & 4) begin Ch.5 Conditional Probability
            6    Hacking Chs 4 & 5 continued
5    Feb    9    Exercises Hacking Ch.5
            11    Quiz#4 (Chs.4& 5) begin Ch. 6 Basic Rules of Probability
            13    Hacking Ch.6 continued; Exercises Hacking Ch. 6
6    Feb    _
            18    Quiz #5 (Hacking Ch. 6) and review
            20    Mid-term test 1
7    Feb    23    Hacking Ch.8 Expected Value
            25    Hacking Ch 9 Maximizing Expected Value
            27        Chances Are Ch.5
8    Mar    2    Exercises Hacking Chs. 8&9
            4    Quiz #6 (Hacking Chs. 8 & 9) more insurance
            6        Chances Are Ch. 7 Healing
9    Mar    9    Medical test problems
            11    Hacking Ch 10 Decision under Uncertainty
            13†    turn in Quiz #7 (on insurance)    [†March 13 Last day to withdraw]
Chances Are Ch. 10 Fighting
10    Mar    16    Exercises Hacking Ch 10 and review
            18    Quiz #8; Ch 10 and review
            20    Mid-term test 2

11    Mar        Spring Break

12    Mar    30    Hacking Ch. 11 What do you Mean? & Ch 12 Theories about Probability
          Apr 1    Bayes Rule versus Bell curves and large numbers
              3    Hacking Ch. 7 Bayes' Rule     Chances Are Ch.8 Judging        
13    Apr    6    Exercises Hacking Ch. 7
            8    Quiz #9 (Hacking Chs. 11,12 & 7), Hacking Ch.15 Learning, from Experience
            _
14    Apr    13    Exercises Hacking Ch. 15
            15    turn in Quiz #10 (on Bayes' Rule); Hacking Ch 16 & 17 Normal Approxim’ns    
            17         Chances Are Ch. 6 Figuring
15    Apr    20    Exercises Hacking Ch. 16 & 17
            22    Quiz #11 (Hacking Ch 16 & 17) Hacking Ch 18 Significance,
            24    Hacking, Ch 19 Confidence
16    Apr    27    Exercises Hacking18 & 19
            29    Quiz #12 (Hacking 18 & 19)    Chances Are Ch.9 Predicting
        May 1    Choices, Risks and reasoning
17    May    4    turn in Quis #13 (confidence intervals) Review
            6    Review    

    May 11    Final Test 7:30-9:30 Holm 211
 

Disability Policy: Students who need reasonable accommodations because of the impact of a disability, should (i) contact the KOKUA Program, room 013, QLCSS, 956-7511 or 956-7612; (ii) speak with the instructor who will be happy to work the KOKUA Program to meet any access needs related to any documented disability.

Indicate below any problems that may affect your performance in this course and which you feel I should know about.  On the back list the courses, if any, you previously enrolled in (whether passed, failed or withdrawn) to satisfy the FS requirement and describe briefly your atttitude toward the FS requirement.