PHIL 111 (FS) – Inductive Logic – Fall 2008
WF 9:30 – 10:20am CR105
Office Hours: W 10:30- 11:30, Th 1:30-2:30 or by appointment
This course will introduce you to the basic principles of inductive reasoning, focusing on the role of probability. It aims to help you understand and use probabilities, risk evaluations and statistics in everyday life situations. Today the media deluge us with statistics and probability claims; most academic disciplines use statistics to analyze and present data. The goal is to help you navigate some of the uses and abuses of statistics.
Ian Hacking An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic.
Michael & Ellen Kaplan Chances Are: Adventures in Probability
Required – i-clicker for class participation.
You are required to purchase an i-clicker remote for in-class participation. I-Clicker is a response system that will allow you to give me feedback to the questions that I pose during class, and you will be graded on that feedback and/or participation. In order to receive this credit, you will need to register your i-clicker remote online within the first two weeks of class. To register, go to www.iclicker.com. Click on "Register" along the left navigation bar. Complete the fields with your first name, last name, student ID, and remote ID. Your student ID should be your UH student ID number. The remote ID is the number found on the back of your i-clicker remote. The i-clicker response system will be used every day in the large class, and you are responsible for bringing your remote daily.
Student Learning Objectives
For FS courses in general
• Students can solve a real world problem making appropriate use of symbolic representation and manipulation.
• Students can evaluate a line of reasoning for correctness
• Students are able to illustrate the power or limitations of a symbolic technique
For this course in particular
• By the end of the course students should be familiar with the basic concepts of logic, probability, statistics and decision theory. In other words they should know the definitions of these concepts and be able to apply the concepts appropriately.
• Students should know why statistical and probability models are important and be able to set up simple models (including the use of diagrams) to solve problems.
• Students should be able to engage in and evaluate “risky” inferences.
This is course to help develop reasoning and analytic skills. Acquiring any skill (to speak a language, to play the piano, to play tennis) requires you to practice. You cannot succeed just by reading a book or listening to a teacher. You will not do well on the weekly quizzes or mid-term tests if you do not practice by attempting the exercises in the book and paying attention to the definitions of key words for review listed at the end of each chapter. It is expected that you will read each chapter before we are scheduled to discuss it in class. It is also expected that you will do any and all remaining exercises at the end of each chapter that we have not covered in class before the quiz on that chapter. Lab sections focus on exercises. If there is material you do not understand you should ask questions in class, in the lab section and/or make an appointment with one of the instructors.
If you want to do well in this class SHOW YOUR WORK in all written answers. The class is primarily about the process used to arrive at a conclusion, not just “the bottom line”.
Weekly quizzes will have a take-home part and most will also have an in-class part. The take-home part will be handed out at the end of each lab session and will be due at the beginning of class on Wednesday. NO LATE WORK WILL BE ACCEPTED. The in-class part will be at the beginning of class on Wednesday.
Weekly quizzes and class participation 35%,
Midterms (2) – 35%.
Final Exam – 30%.
There are 13 quizzes. For those who do all 13, the best 10 grades will be counted. If you miss 3, for any reason, your 10 remaining grades will be counted. Additional absences will result in a grade of zero being entered for each quiz missed. The in-class part of quizzes will normally be on the definitions of key terms (listed at the end of each chapter) and ability to apply them in the context of a short example. The take-home part will involve problem solving similar to that required for the exercises in the textbook. From time to time there will be some more challenging problems available for extra credit.
In order to pass this course, you must take and pass the final exam.
If you feel you need reasonable accommodations because of the impact of a disability, please (i) contact the KOKUA Program, room 013, QLCSS, 956-7511 or 956-7612; (ii) speak with me privately to discuss your specific needs. I will be happy to work with you and the KOKUA Program to meet your access needs related to your documented disability.
(the instructors reserve the right to change this schedule if they deem it necessary)
25 August Introduction – Diagnostic test (not for grade)/odd questions
27 August logic & history Chances Are Ch.1
29 August Hacking Ch. 1 & Ch 2 Logic
1 September Labor Day
3 September Quiz (Ch.1 & 2) Chances Are Ch 2
5 September Hacking Ch 3 The Gambler’s Fallacy
8 September Hacking Ch.3 Exercises turn in take-home quiz on Gambling
10 September Chances Are Ch 4
12 September Hacking Ch. 4 Elementary Probability Ideas
15 September Exercises Hacking Ch. 4
17 September Quiz (Hacking Chs. 3 & 4) begin Ch.5 Conditional Probability
19 September Hacking Chs 4 & 5 continued
22 September Exercises Hacking Ch.5
24 September Quiz (Chs.4& 5) begin Ch. 6 Basic Rules of Probability
26 September Hacking Ch.6 continued
29 September Exercises Hacking Ch. 6
1 October Quiz (Hacking Ch. 6) and review
3 October Mid-term test 1
6 October Chances Are Ch.5
8 October Hacking Ch.8 Expected Value
10 October Hacking Ch 9 Maximizing Expected Value
13 October Exercises Hacking Chs. 8&9
15 October Quiz (Hacking Chs. 8 & 9) more insurance
17 October Chances Are Ch. 7 Healing
20 October Medical test problems
22 October Hacking Ch 10 Decision under Uncertainty
24 October Chances Are Ch. 10 Fighting
27 October Exercises Hacking Ch 10 and review
29 October Quiz Ch 10 and review
31 October Mid-term II
3 November Hacking Ch. 11 What do you Mean? & Ch 12 Theories about Probability
5 November Bayes Rule versus Bell curves and large numbers
7 November Hacking Ch. 7 Bayes’ Rule
10 November Exercises Hacking Ch. 7
12 November Quiz (Hacking Chs. 11,12 & 7) Chances Are Ch.8 Judging
14 November Hacking Ch.15 Learning from Experience
17 November Exercises Hacking Ch.15
19 November Quiz Bayes’ Rule Chances Are Ch. 6 Figuring
21 November Hacking Ch 16 & 17 Normal Approximations
24 November Exercises Hacking Ch. 16 & 17
26 November Quiz Hacking Ch 16 &17 Hacking Ch 18 Significance, Ch 19 Confidence
31 November Exercises Hacking 18 & 19
2 December Quiz Hacking 18 & 19 Chances Are Predicting Ch.9
4 December Choices, Risks and reasoning
7 December Review
9 December Review
15 December Final 9:45-11:45