UHERO publication Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaiʻi Tourism by Ashley Hirashima, James Jones, Carl Bonham and Peter Fuleky was awarded the Polzin Prize for Best Paper at the 2016 AUBER fall conference.
Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaiʻi Tourism evaluated the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. The study provides a thorough introduction of these methods.
The researchers highlighted the distinguishing features and limitations of each tool and evaluated their forecasting performance in two tourism-specific applications. The results indicate that compared to the exclusive use of low frequency aggregates, including timely intra-period data in the forecasting process results in significant gains in predictive accuracy. Anticipating growing popularity of these techniques among empirical analysts, the researchers presented practical implementation guidelines to facilitate their adoption.
More about AUBER
The AUBER Polzin Prize is named for Paul Polzin, emeritus director of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research and was offered for the first time in 2016. AUBER is a professional association of business and economic research centers in public and private universities. Founded in 1947, it strives to unite its members in the shared purpose of advancing economic research, promoting the collection and dissemination of economic information, facilitating the improvement in the services of its members and demonstrating the importance of the economic development, outreach and research roles of its members. The annual AUBER conference was held in Honolulu in 2012.
—By Lisa Shirota