Overview of National Occupational Projections, 2018-2028
Fiorella Peñaloza, D.M., University of HawaiʻiThe fastest growing occupations nation-wide are projected to span the healthcare industry, energy industry, and technology industry according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dubina et al., 2019). This article provides an overview of these industries and associated occupations projected to have the greatest growth over the next decade (from 2018 to 2028). These projections do not include impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and response efforts, as occupational trends examined precede the pandemic. Given the lack of a systematic method for evaluating occupational supply that accounts for a variety of sources of supply, the national projections of employment examined in this article are based on demand only.
Section 1: The Healthcare Industry
Currently, the middle-aged population outnumber that of children and by 2034 it is projected that people over the age of 65 will outnumber children under the age of 18 (Vespa, 2018). The demographic shift is attributed to declines in fertility rates and international migration rates combined with an increase in life expectancy. This would represent a historic milestone in the demographic shift within the nation and is anticipated to have a widespread societal impact. The Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates the healthcare and social assistance sector to have the fastest growth among service-providing sectors, increasing at a 2.9% annual rate, largely due to the graying population and increasing prevalence of mental illness, among other illnesses (Dubina et al., 2019; SAMHSA, 2017). The subsequent paragraphs in this section will focus on the anticipated impact the demographic shift will have on the healthcare and social assistance labor market.
According to the National Council on Aging, one in four older adults experience some mental disorder such as depression, anxiety, and dementia. This number is anticipated to double to 15 million by 2030. The needs of behavioral health are beyond those specific to the graying population. In 2016, an estimated 44.7 million adults aged 18 or older (representing 18.3% of all adults) had any mental illness in the past year and an estimated 10.4 million adults (representing 4.2% of all adults) had a serious mental illness. The prevalence of any mental illness and serious mental illness is on the rise among adults. In 2016, approximately 20.1 million people aged 12 or older had a substance use disorder related to their use of alcohol or illicit drugs. Substance abuse disorders were considerably larger in people aged 12 to 25 in comparison to adults aged 26 or older. Taken together, this data suggests the presence of mental health problems on the rise across all age groups and with a higher prevalence among the elderly population (SAMHSA, 2017).
It is estimated that geriatricians provide care to 30% of patients aged 65 and over and the demand for geriatricians is projected to exceed supply, resulting in a national shortage of 26,980 FTEs, with the greatest shortage projected to be in the Western region of the United States (deficit of 14,530 geriatricians FTEs by 2025; HHS, 2017). Geriatricians typically work as part of a team with other health care providers that specialize in geriatrics to provide care for the elderly (John Hopkins Medicine, 2020). The impact of the shortage in geriatricians is expected to prevail across the health care industry contributing to an increased demand in physician assistants (31% growth rate, 2018-2028), home health aides (37% growth rate, 2018- 2028), personal care aides (36% growth rate, 2018-2028), and occupational therapy assistants (33% growth rate, 2018-2028). According to Mercer, a leading global consultancy, the aging population will result in a national demand to hire 2.3 million new health care workers by 2025, with the greatest shortages projected to be in home health aides, medical and lab technologists and technicians, nursing assistants, and nurse practitioners (Kavilanz, 2018). Many of these health care workers are in the allied health professions and are anticipated to be in high demand among long-term healthcare and in-home service care.
The demand of geriatricians is mirrored by the increasing demand of physicians overall, which is increasing the number of physician assistants to help meet this need. According to the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA), the percentage of physician assistants working in all practice specialties has grown by 13% from 2015 to 2018 and continues to be one of the fastest nationally growing occupations. The NCCPA’s Statistical Report (2017) indicates the top certified physician assistant practice areas to include family medicine/general practice (19.9%), surgical subspecialties (18.5%), emergency medicine (13.1%), internal medicine subspecialties (9.4%), internal medicine general practice (4.9%), dermatology (3.9%), hospital medicine (3.4%), general surgery (2.9%), pediatrics (2%) and occupational medicine (1.5%). Of these practice areas, the surgical subspecialties have increased by over 70% since 2013. Orthopedic surgery and cardiothoracic surgery are two of the most popular surgical subspecialties that physician assistants help with (NCCPA, 2018). Physician assistants have also helped meet growing demands within hospital medicine, including providing emergency room care.
Direct care workers (i.e. nursing assistants, home health aides, personal care aides, and psychiatric assistants/aides) currently comprise about 70% of the long-term services and healthcare support industry (HHS, 2020). In 2015 alone, there was a demand for about 2.3 million direct care workers in long-term services and support settings; this demand is estimated to increase to 3.4 million by 2030. The workforce demand is distributed among homes and community-based settings (50%), residential care facilities (25%) and in nursing homes (25%).
Of the direct care workers, psychiatric aides and home health aides are projected to be in the highest demand with a 55% and 51% percent increase in demand respectively within the long- term services and support industry. This projected demand is followed by nursing assistants and personal care aides, whose percent growth is anticipated to increase by 48% and 46%, respectively. In addition to paid long-term services and support, approximately 87% of individuals that need long-term care receive some form of care from unpaid caregivers and is estimated to amount to a $470 billion in savings (HHS, 2020). The consensus is that the United States would not have enough formal caregivers to give the long-term care that family caregivers provide.
Occupational therapy assistants are also projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to increase by over 30% between from 2018 to 2028 with the demand driven predominantly by the needs of the aging population. According to the American Occupational Therapy Association, occupational therapy assistants provide services which include low-vision rehabilitation; assist with treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, including caregiver training; older driver safety and rehabilitation; assisted living; and home safety and home modifications to enable “aging in place” (AOTA, n.d.). Occupational therapy interventions have been found to be effective in supporting productive aging by reducing pain, decreasing disability, mitigating falls and injuries, and improving activities in daily life by increasing physical function (Leland & Elliott, 2012). In addition to providing service to the elderly, occupational therapy practitioners also work as consultants to industry for wellness and prevention with the goal of increasing worker performance (Jaegars et al., 2015).
Section 2: Energy Industry
Clean energy is anticipated to make up half of the word’s energy by 2050 (McKinsey and Company, 2019a). The projected increase of electrification is anticipated to be due to road transport, buildings, and industry; with an annual growth in demand averaging about 1% in the United States (EIA, 2020). Electrification is also driven by strong improvements in the lower cost options of electric vehicles that are projected to continue. Recently, an age-energy consumption profile in the U.S. residential sector found that energy consumption increases over the life course, which may be amplified due to the demographic shift, among other changes (Estiri and Zagheni, 2019).
By 2030, renewable energy options for electrification are anticipated to become cheaper than existing coal and gas. Germany and Spain are expected to reach the tipping point in the energy transition from nonrenewable to renewable energy sources before 2025, globally outpacing most regions (McKinsey and Company, 2019b). It is anticipated that by the year 2035 nearly half of the total global power capacity will be in solar and wind, with China and India as the main contributors (McKinsey and Company, 2019b). In contrast the United States is anticipated to reach the tipping point after 2035, later than most regions, largely due to an anticipated delay in energy transition within the Northwest region. Currently in the United States the costs for solar and wind renewable energy are on a declining trend, which are a critical factor in sustaining the energy demand growth (EIA, 2020). However, it is uncertain how long the reduced cost for renewable energy electricity generation will continue.
Clean energy jobs are growing at a rate 12 times as fast as the rest of the US economy and are adding jobs in nearly every state; resulting in over 110,000 net new clean energy jobs nationally (Environmental Entrepreneurs, 2019; Kiersz, and Akhtar, 2019). The states leading in clean energy generation include Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, California, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota, which generate more than 20% of their energy from wind and solar energy (Environmental Entrepreneurs, 2019). Clean energy jobs contribute to the value chain of construction (~50%), manufacturing (~20%), professional services (~15%), trade (~9%), and other industries (~6%). By the year 2035, renewable energy is expected to become the world’s dominant power source and by 2050, renewables are expected to supply 75% of the world’s energy (McKinsey and Company, 2019a). Financial institutions in the U.S. (including banks, asset managers, and private-equity firms) are expected to double planned investments in renewable energy, with the potential to mobilize $1 trillion in cumulative private capital by 2030 (Deign, 2019).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates the increase demand in clean energy generation to translate to a projected increase of solar photovoltaic installers and wind turbine service technicians by 63% and 57% from 2018 to 2028, respectively. Presently, 84% of surveyed employers across energy sectors (i.e. electric power generation sector; transmission, distribution, and storage sector; energy efficiency sector; motor vehicles sector; and fuel sector) have reported hiring difficulties and anticipate that they will continue (NASEO and EFI, 2020). Hiring difficulty was highlighted by virtually all sectors as a growing problem. Just over 84% of employers across these sectors reported difficulty hiring qualified workers over the last 12 months, with 29% of employers reporting that it was very difficult (NASEO and EFI, 2020).
Hiring difficulties are attributed to a lack of experience, training, or technical skills according to employers across all five surveyed sectors. The need for technical training and certifications was also frequently cited across surveyed employers, suggesting the need for expanded investments in workforce training and closer coordination between employers and the workforce training. The need for expanded workforce development and training may present a unique opportunity for community colleges, particularly in regions where demand is greatest.
Furthermore, veterans comprise 8-10% of the energy employment workforce, which is higher than the national average of 6%. Community colleges that provide educational benefits and resources tailored to the military and veteran community may also be well-positioned to offer workforce development and training opportunities in clean energy to this demographic.
In addition to technical skills, there is also a demand of other occupations within the renewable energy industry. Given the anticipated shift from non-renewable to renewable energy, the following occupations are projected to grow substantially by 2026 (Kiersz and Akhtar, 2019):
Recent developments in anticipating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have suggested the significance and urgency in helping the nation’s economy recover. According to David Terry, the executive director of the National Association of State Energy Officials (EFI and NASEO, 2020), “The impacts of COVID-19 are devastating, and we remain focused on the health and wellbeing of all Americans as the top priority. At the same time, it is important to begin thinking about how to best help our nation’s economy recover by putting people back to work, in high-paying jobs like those in the energy sector. We believe that recovery investments with the greatest potential economic development impact for America’s future will be those that prioritize equitable and sustainable energy solutions. Energy and climate investments and the nation’s 8.3 million energy jobs are a key part of the COVID-19 recovery solution.”
Section 3: Technology Industry
The demographic shift is also anticipated to have a ripple effect on labor participation, with older people (aged 65 and older) increasingly participating in the labor force more than they have historically in the United States, which could challenge productivity and competitiveness (Dubina et al., 2019). The McKinsey Global Institute (2020) identified the adoption of digital technologies as the biggest factor in future economic growth, estimating that it will likely account for about 60% of potential productivity growth by 2030 globally. Businesses are already struggling to find people that can work with digital technologies and the increased demand in artificial intelligence (AI) is anticipated to require most workers to upskill or reskill (Bughin et al., 2018). Up to 14% of people globally may need to change occupations by 2030, a figure that could climb above 30% in more advanced economies with a faster pace of automation (Manyika et al., 2017).
Apple Inc. has also made strategic moves to enhance its AI solutions. In 2018, Apple acquired Silk Labs to achieve visual and audio intelligence and in 2019 it acquired a start-up to achieve an AI powered self-driving car. Amazon began offering AI as a service in 2018 to expand the AI market globally (Fortune Business Insights, 2020). AI investment is growing fast, and despite its main concentration within the technology industry it has great potential in penetrating other industries. According to McKinsey Global Institute, AI can improve performance beyond what other analytics are providing with transport and logistics, retail, automotive and assembly, high tech, oil and gas businesses most likely to see the greatest gains from AI (Chui, 2018). In 2015, the US federal government invested $1 billion into unclassified AI research and development (Executive Office of the President, 2016). The labor market in the United States has begun to shift by adding a new occupation within the labor market for intelligence analysts given their employment demand across various industries (Kochhar, 2020). While the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not have occupational growth projections for intelligence analysts, the demand for business intelligence analysts overall is projected to increase by 7-10% from 2018 to 2028.
The healthcare industry, one of the largest industries in the US, has not been immune to these changes. The advent of the adoption of electronic health records after the passage of the Affordable Care Act (2010) and Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (2009) in the US has facilitated the electronic integration of patient data to support decision-making as it pertains to health care and the development of treatments. Healthcare data include information about a patient’s lifestyle, medical history, encountered visits with practices, laboratory and imaging tests, diagnoses, prescribed medications, performed surgical procedures, consulted providers, and data received from telemonitoring interventions, forming big data repositories (Ahmed and Liang, 2020). In 2018, the “All of Us” research initiative from the National Institutes of Health was launched with the goal of enrolling a diverse group of at least 1 million persons in the US to gather and integrate patient data in a new way. This initiative, while still underway, is anticipated to transform the healthcare industry by developing a systematic approach of integrating a variety of patient data by leveraging information technology to learn more about disease prevention and treatment. Some healthcare experts believe that the effectiveness of precision medicine is dependent on AI; needed to promote a medical revolution focused on reducing medical error and cost, increasing efficiency, and enhancing quality care (Agrawal & Prabakaran, 2020; Ahmed et al., 2020). Some countries, like China, already have AI assisted healthcare screenings and diagnostics in place (Fortune Business Insights, 2020).
The labor market in the United States has begun to shift by adding new analytical occupations within the healthcare industry, such as informatics nurse specialists (Executive Office of the President, 2016). While the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not have growth projections for informatics nurse specialists, it estimates the growth of computer system analysts to be 7% (from 2018 to 2028). The employment demand of database architects, a relatively new occupation within the labor market, is also projected to continue to grow within the healthcare industry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the growth rate of database administrators, the closest listed occupation to that of a database architect, to increase by 9% (from 2018 to 2028). The growing demand in employment of biostaticians has also prompted a new classification within the labor market, despite the fact that it is not a novel occupation (Kochhar, 2020). The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the growth rate of statisticians (the closest listed occupation to that of the biostatistician listed with a closely related work environment) to increase by 30% (from 2018 to 2028).
The demand in analytical occupations has also been observed within the renewable energy industry. Within the renewable energy industry, newer jobs are requiring analytical skills in programming (35% increase), science (34% increase), mathematics (28% increase), systems analysis (25% increase) and systems evaluation (25% increase). The need for analytical skills outweighs the mechanical needs in most new jobs within the renewable energy industry (Kochhar, 2020). The demand for renewable energy has increased the need for energy engineers, nanosystems engineers, industrial engineers, and hydrologists as well (Kochhar, 2020). While the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not have occupational growth projections for energy engineers, nanosystems engineers, or industrial engineers, the demand for engineers overall is projected to increase by 4-6% by 2018 to 2028. Hydrologists are projected to have a similar growth rate of 7% from 2018 to 2028.
Conclusions
Demographic shifts over the last several years have influenced changes within the healthcare, energy and technology industries; including the shift in anticipated occupations examined in this article. The current levels of healthcare professionals will not meet the demands of future healthcare needs and some services are already incorporating remote or telemonitoring interventions, to minimize this shortfall. The systematic integration of technologies, such as telemonitoring seen within healthcare, is anticipated to have a pervasive impact across all industries. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, 60% of global productivity will be facilitated by adoption of digital technologies as the biggest factor in future economic growth with artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies emerging as potential global solutions. Lead futurist, George Gilder, predicts that the wide-spread use of artificial intelligence will propel block chain technology, resulting in the fourth industrial revolution globally (known as the cryptocosm). Blockchain technology is intended to enhance organizational efficiencies by managing the data overload, centralizing processes, and enhancing asset and value transfer (i.e. management of a digital currency). While the origins of blockchain stemmed from increasing efficiencies with financial technology, it has quickly diffused across other sectors. The top four invested industries being technology, media, and telecommunications; energy and resources; manufacturing (including farming); and life sciences and healthcare according to Deloitte’s 2019 Global Blockchain Survey. Unsurprisingly, the fastest growing occupations fall within the most heavily invested industries. The technological convergence of various industries can present unique opportunities for cross-industry collaboration to collectively address the future demand. Cross functional collaboration between higher education and industry is already being facilitated by legislation (Distance Education and Innovation, 2020), whose collaborative approach to meeting anticipated needs is likely to continue.
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| Occupations | Nation-wide | Photovoltaic Installers | 63.0% | Wind Turbine Service Technicians | 57.0% | Home Health Aides | 36.6% | Personal Care Aides | 36.4% | Occupational Therapy Assistants | 33.1% | Information Security Analysts | 31.6% | Physician Assistants | 31.1% | Statisticians | 30.7% | Nurse Practitioners | 28.2% |
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Source: Kevin S. Dubina, Teresa L. Morisi, Michael Rieley, and Andrea B. Wagoner, "Projections overview and highlights, 2018– 28," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2019, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2019.21.
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